At present the three research fields of (i) understanding the physics of rogue ocean waves, (ii) predicting the short-term occurrence of rogue ocean waves by numerical simulation, and (iii) employing data driven methods in the context of rogue ocean waves, are largely disconnected. We thus propose to integrate the three fields of knowledge and methods to develop novel hybrid approaches, which are physics based, computer modelling and simulation driven, and enriched by data based methods.
The vision is to predict the sea state evolution and the occurrence of rogue wave events up to the limit given by the theoretical horizon of predictability of the specific chaotic sea state. Individual methods from the three fields described seem not to be able to reach this objective. First combinations of methods, however, have already turned out synergetic and beneficial. Thus this proposal aims at studying optimised combinations of all three fields to push the boundary of how one can achieve predictions closer to the theoretically possible horizon of predictability.
Funding: German Research Foundation (Project number 277972093)
Duration: 3 years